With Leica preparing to announce a (?) fixed-lens APS-C X1 and Samsung preparing an interchangeable lens NX series for late 2009 or early 2010, three giants seemingly slumber.  Yet we know that the labs of Canon, Sony, and Nikon must be hard at work developing their respective direct-view interchangeable lens (DVIL) systems.

The choices being made right now will define the fate of each in this new era of camera systems.  Consider the Olympus/Kodak decision to go ahead with the Four Thirds platform six years ago.  In choosing a smaller sensor size with an aspect ratio that makes more efficient use of the imaging circle, Four Thirds had the potential to achieve a considerably smaller system size than the systems of competitors.  Instead, Olympus chose to design a system in which nearly every single lens delivers sharpness, even light, and beautiful color right into the extreme corners of the frame.  In other words, Olympus overbuilt their lenses.

With Micro Four Thirds, Olympus and Panasonic have gone in another direction entirely.  A short registration distance allows them to build smaller lenses, yet as Leica or Sigma can witness, it brings new design challenges.  One need only look at the cyan corners of an early Leica M8 or Sigma DP1 image to understand this.  One solution would be for Olympus and Panasonic to once again overbuild their lenses and yield the compact size advantage of their new system.  Yet these two companies have come to realize that the way forward lies not with comprehensive optics but rather digital correction.  Panasonic, in particular, has pioneered the holistic lens-software approach.  Olympus has begrudgingly come along beginning with the ZD 25/2.8, their smallest, least perfect, and still uncorrected Four Thirds lens.  The tiny Olympus 17/2.8 confirms their progress, but Panasonic has zipped by with the 1.3-stop faster and equally svelte Lumix 20/1.7, a lens which no doubt leverages the full powers of Venus and Adobe Camera Raw.

What of Canon, Sony, and Nikon? Can they challenge the compact size of Micro Four Thirds while designing lenses for an APS-C imaging circle?  A more fundamental is to what mount and format these companies will committ. If Canon builds a compact DVIL lens system around an APS-C standard, what happens when the DVIL market calls for 35mm full frame?  My guess is that the Big 3 will move conservatively and each introduce new systems with mounts designed to support both full frame and APS-C sensors. In doing so, will they be able to challenge the compact size of Micro Four Thirds in the DVIL market? A glance at the Leica M9 suggests that they may be able to do just that.

For a given company, lens mounts tend to come around just once in a few decades. 2010 is sure to be an interesting year.